The Market
Different markets we could target?
The overall market size of people who want to workout is massive. Ex: Every year, 41% of Americans try to start a new years solution, mostly around health. But, the size for who should workout is essentially everyone.
But, people have different fitness goals and mental models on how they want to solve these problems. Here are a few:
Frugal convenient full workout. Want to get their workout in for the day. Wants convenience in their busy schedule. On demand. Low cost and overhead. Example products they use: Youtube videos, video/app subscription services delivering 45 minute workouts in HIIT.
Affluent convenient workout. same as #1, but willing to spend money. Example products: Peloton, smart home equipment.
Accountability. seeking a full workout and guidance. Ex. Product: personal training, app based personal training
Community and accountability. Seeking a full workout with accountability. Example products: CrossFit, boutique group fitness classes.
Casual athlete. Plays sports 1-3 times per week
Strength builder. Workouts who utilizes heavy weights. Example products: fitness club for weights, home gym with weights. Also includes CrossFit like experiences with cross-functional weighted movements.
Bikers or Runners. They go outside and get their 30-60 minute workout. People can range from casual to hardcore experience. Example products: on their own, marathons, run or bike groups, Zwift, Trainer Road. Running is the most popular form of exercise globally.
Walkers. Trying to get in their 7k to 10k steps per day. Walking is the most convenient form of building a healthy movement habit since it hacks an already existing mode of movement.
Exercise gamers. Play fitness video games. Ex. products: Ring Fit adventure (Nintendo), VR Boxing
Zero to 1 strength. Trying to build a habit. Does pushups, squats, and situp routines. Doesn't like home video workouts. Ex. products: self prescribed routine, pushup apps
Narrow the target markets
If I am to target the largest market of movement, it would be walking and running. But, this field is saturated with solutions, thus difficult to compete in.
Instead, we can target growing and underserved markets:
Zero to One strength: there are not many at home solutions, other than cardio based home video workouts, running, or buying weights. So they dismiss building a strength based movement habit all together.
Some people may already run, but have no strength routine, but do not want to commit to a full strength routine with weights.
Exercise gamers. the gaming industry is exploding, but requires having a VR kit or a gaming console with additional hardware required. This is not convenient or low cost.
Strength builder. people who build their strength do not have a fun outlet to test and use their strength. Exercise games can provide that outlet, but most games are focused around getting a 45 minute workout in, which these types of people already have in their routine.
Target analysis
Who?
This analysis focuses on zero to one movement habit building, and zero to one strength habit. The focus is on the US market since numbers are more readily available.
Another assumption is that all experiences will become games in some way, some day. And games make the experience of working out more tolerable, thus, we can avoid analyzing the fitness gaming market, and specifically analyze people who use fitness apps (low cost, low overhead), want to start a habit from 0 to 1, and interested in strength movements.
What is the Size?
What is the number of people who want to start a movement habit?
If 41% of America (320M) tries to start a healthy habit every new years, then let's assume 70% of that is for a movement habit: 92M of US population.
But, only 9% of them feel they are successful by year's end.
83M people want to build a movement habit, but failed.
How many people use a fitness app for exercise or weight loss?
84 million US adults use a health or fitness apps.
60% of the apps on the market are for exercise or weight loss apps:
50M people use apps to lose weight or exercise
How many people are interested in fitness apps that are strength based?
Assume that 95% of apps used in the US are around cardio, yoga, running, or non strength activities. This leaves us with around 2.5M potential users interested in strength (50M * 5%).
If we look at the number of downloads for a Pushup App (Android store only, global), it's around 10M users. To work backwards and use the math from the US estimates:
there are 385M global fitness app users, 60% of those are exercise based, and if we assume 95% of those are for non strength workouts, then we also conclude...
10M global users interested in strength based home app workouts.
Conclusion (In USA)
Around 80M people failed to start a movement habit
Around 2.5M people are interested in building strength habit with apps.
We should target the 2.5M strength app users as the path of least resistance, but we can later target the remaining 80M using apps for movement.
Something to think about
When you start a movement habit, the ones who stick with it is not about losing weight, rather, it's about building an identity through habits. If one were to build a habit around movement (regardless if it is for strength, running, cardio, yoga, etc), then this person should move more often, overall. The challenge then becomes, how might we get people to build a movement habit that leads to longer form workouts over a life time?
How fast is it growing?
In 2020, the US market size for fitness apps for weight loss and exercise is $388M ($1T globally). US market is expected go grow to $2T by 2030. For all fitness apps (includes diet nutrition, and activity tracking), that number is projected to be $3.5T by 2030.
In regards to the global gaming market, it is currently $200B in 2021, and estimated to grow to $500B in 2030. Where the interactive fitness market is expected to grow by $5.44B 2020 to 2024.
Why is it growing?
Ease of mobile app development. Growth in popularity of No Code solutions, React, Dart/Flutter frameworks, online engineering bootcamps.
Increase in adoption to fitness trackers. Devices are becoming smaller and cheaper to produce, making them more affordable and fashion forward, with building identity around "being healthy".
Global penetration of mobile phones, especially Android in the global markets make gaming and access to fitness apps more obtainable.
Education around healthy living more available. the growth of social media, and video content providers (ex. YouTube), has shown how other people live healthy and why it's important. In comparison, in 1990, we we're all living in a cave essentially.
Growth of virtual reality device adoption (and potentially augmented reality)
What is the history of the market?
Exercise, before the digital age of mobile applications, has been mostly exercise videos, brick and mortar experiences, and sports. The options were also limited too.
Brick and mortar experiences are not convenient or inexpensive, or custom to the needs of the consumer.
For sports, only 1 out of 4 adults continue playing, and this is not a convenient solution into the age of productivity.
Exercise videos were not conveniently accessed due to requiring physical copies (VHS or DVDs) of the program. Also, these solutions are expensive limiting it to affluent and motivated people to acquire these videos.
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